If Roswell Happened Today
Nick Pope
Nick Pope
One of the questions I’m most frequently asked is what the MoD would do if a UFO crashed (or indeed landed) in the UK. Is there a plan? Who would be involved? Would the government try to cover it up? In this two-part article I’ll be setting out the issues and – hopefully – fuelling some discussion and debate. In relation to the issue of genuine extraterrestrial contact, there are a range of scenarios that could arise. These fall into four broad categories and I shall deal with the first three relatively quickly, before focusing on the idea of a UFO crash, as this latter concept – largely due to Roswell – is so embedded in the minds of the UFO community.
Alien Invasion
Scenario one is an alien invasion and there’s little that I can say about this that isn’t wild speculation. In a field where it’s foolhardy to make assumptions (I’ve often heard ufologists make bold statements beginning with phrases such as “well, aliens wouldn’t do that because …”) one of the few logical assumptions we can legitimately make is that any extraterrestrials visiting Earth will have a more advanced technology than ours, on the basis that they will have viable interstellar travel, whereas our space programme is in its infancy. Despite the odds, it’s in our nature to fight and I speculated what might happen in my my two science fiction novels, Operation Thunder Child and Operation Lightning Strike – the only sci-fi novels ever to have needed government clearance prior to publication. Incidentally, in October 2007, US Presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani was asked by an 8 year old boy how the US would respond if it did ever encounter hostile extraterrestrials. He said that the US would deal with the situation, but he was clearly unprepared for the question and had no real idea what to say. Go to You Tube and put the two words “Giuliani” and “alien” into the search box, if you want to watch the exchange.
Benign First Contact
Scenario two is almost as speculative as scenario one, so again, there’s little one can say. As with scenario one, the reasonable assumption is that if ‘they’ discover you, ‘they’ are your technological superiors. This is one of the more interesting concepts in a paper entitled “UFO Hypothesis and Survival Questions”, which can be found on the NSA website and which explores some of these speculative issues about contact with extraterrestrials. Suffice to say, given that visiting extraterrestrials are likely to be our technological superiors, it’s more likely than not that they would set the agenda. Needless to say, it’s to be hoped that benign first contact would include exchanges of information that might lead to our acquiring considerable scientific knowledge and technology.
Finding a Signal
Scenario three is the detection of a signal by means of radio astronomy. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) community is an active one and indeed 11 October 2007 was inauguration day for the Allen Telescope Array, which the SETI Institute believes will “shift SETI into third gear”. Even that pales into insignificance when compared to the power of the Square Kilometer Array (SKA), where construction is scheduled to begin in 2011, with the facility fully operational by 2020. Many in the SETI community believe that if there are civilizations using radio anywhere within 100 light years of Earth, SKA will be able to detect them. I often wish that the UFO community and the SETI community got along better. It seems to me that you want the same thing and that the only thing that sets you apart is your methodology. Like it or not, SETI is going from strength to strength and I’ve said before that I think it far more likely that proof that we’re not alone will come from the SETI community rather than from ufologists. As to what would happen if a signal was found, a “Post-Detection SETI Protocol” has been drafted by the International Academy of Astronautics. While not legally binding, it’s probably the best available guide to how the scientific community should respond and what issues are likely to arise. A quick Google search will turn up the document.
UFO Crash
Our fourth and final scenario is the idea of a UFO crash. Of course, there will be those who say that this has already happened, in places such as the Berwyn Mountains, Cannock Chase or even the Llandegla Moors near Wrexham. Personally, I do not find the evidence for such British UFO crashes compelling, though as ever, I try to keep an open mind. Returning to our scenario, again, there are many variables. But we have to start somewhere, so let’s take a hypothetical situation and run with it. Let’s suppose that a UFO crashes in a remote part of the UK. The first question is, would there be any witnesses? Even when aircraft crash in remote areas, TV news reports almost invariably turn up a witness who saw – or at least heard – something, so the chances are, it would be noticed. As with Roswell, it’s statistically likely that the first witness or witnesses would be members of the public. The next question is, who are they going to call? Despite the UFO community’s focus on the MoD, people’s basic instinct will be to call the police and – if they think an aircraft has crashed – the other emergency services.
The Police
It’s likely that the police will be first responders and again, there are all sorts of variables. It may be that they are confronted by a debris field of unidentifiable wreckage, or it may be that a more obvious craft is recognisable. Dependant upon what it looks like (and on issues such as whether any extraterrestrial entities – dead or alive – are found) they may assume it’s an alien spacecraft, or a terrestrial satellite, aircraft or UAV. In either event, their first action should be to cordon off the site and treat it as a crime scene. Follow up actions will include locating and interviewing witnesses, and recovering and analyzing evidence. They may decide to call in the Ministry of Defence Police or the Service (i.e. military) Police, but the local Chief Constable would have primacy, even if others had jurisdiction.
MoD and the Military
Notwithstanding the Chief Constable’s jurisdiction and primacy, he or she would probably, sooner rather than later, decide to call in the MoD and the military. Military Aid to the Civil Authorities (MACA) is often requested at times of national crisis or when large numbers of trained, disciplined people are required. MACA has taken place in the aftermath of floods, the Lockerbie disaster, the foot and mouth disease outbreak and the fuel crisis, to name just a few incidents. For those that want to do further research into this, a number of publications are available. “Military Aid to the Civil Community in the UK – a pamphlet for the guidance of Civil Authorities and Organisations” – the so-called Blue Book – is available from HMSO. “MACA in UK in Peace” is an internal MoD document sometimes referred to as the Green Book. Finally, there is a Home Office publication entitled “Dealing with Disaster”, that provides the framework within which the more detailed plans of the emergency services, local authorities and other organisations are normally prepared. All of these documents provide some clues as to how a UFO crash might be handled, as does the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for an aircraft crash. In other words, while there’s no specific plan for a UFO crash, there are plans and processes that could quickly be adapted. But will “quickly” be good enough?
Biohazard
The biggest single issue that might arise is a potential biological hazard. In “The War of the Worlds”, terrestrial microbes prove deadly to the invading Martians. In reality, the potential hazard is just as likely to work in reverse. The police would automatically cordon the crash site, because this is an action that would spring automatically from their training, but would they think to test for a biohazard or take any actions to mitigate the risk? This is less clear. Of course, the MoD has various equipment and specialists that can help with detection and decontamination. Readers may recall seeing television reports of a recent exercise designed to test the response to a chemical or biological terrorist attack on the London Underground. But in all of this, timing is critical and if nobody thinks to call such equipment and personnel to the site of a UFO crash immediately, vital time is lost and the chances of containing a biohazard diminish rapidly. Faced with an extraterrestrial bacteria or virus against which we would have no defence, the worst case scenario is nothing short of the death of every living organism on the face of our planet. If such a disease was seen to be spreading out from the crash site, a British Prime Minister may have to consider using any means available – including the use of nuclear weapons – to completely sterilize the area. This is why the lack of a dedicated plan for a UFO crash exposes us to a critical risk. However unlikely you think it is, there should be a plan. Using the language of risk assessment, this is the ultimate Low Probability/High Consequence (sometimes known as Low Probability/High Impact) event.
Enemy Attack and the UFO Potential
One honourable exception to the notion that there isn’t a plan for this sort of thing is the second edition of the book “Fire Officer’s Guide to Disaster Control”, by William M. Kramer and Charles W. Bahme. Chapter 13 is entitled “Enemy Attack and the UFO Potential” and if readers Google that phrase, they’ll be able to read the text. Again, it gives an insight into some of the issues that may arise and some of the ways in which a UFO crash might be dealt with. Incidentally, before anyone wonders, I have deliberately not mentioned Project Moon Dust or Project Blue Fly so far. While many ufologists believe such projects relate to the recovery of crashed or downed UFOs, I believe they were set up to ensure the timely recovery of decidedly more terrestrial (e.g. Soviet) hardware. Be that as it may, I have decided that these matters are outside the scope of this article, though some pertinent issues arise.
COBRA
Another key player in our unfolding scenario is COBRA. This is the Civil Contingencies Committee, which takes its name from the room where it meets, Cabinet Office Briefing Room A, in Downing Street. COBRA met in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 7/7 attack and many other national emergencies. Attendees would vary according to the nature of the crisis, but might include the Prime Minister, senior government ministers, police and intelligence chiefs. The secretariat function is provided by civil servants in the Cabinet Office – the department that co-ordinates action when a situation involves several government departments. One issue the committee could consider is whether to invoke powers in Part Two of the Civil Contingencies Act, which gives considerable extra powers at the time of a serious emergency. Under such powers, Parliament can be suspended, freedom of movement limited, property requisitioned or destroyed. Again, a Google search on terms such as COBRA, Civil Contingencies Committee and Civil Contingencies Act will reveal much interesting and relevant information.
Next Steps
Numerous other issues arise, many of which relate to MoD’s handling of the issue. Because while the Cabinet Office and COBRA would doubtless take a co-ordinating role, MoD (not least by virtue of having responsibility for policy on UFOs and investigation of sightings) would quickly emerge as the lead department. Questions that would need to be handled range from what to tell Ministers, through to how to handle the media. What would Parliament be told? And critically, for conspiracy theorists, would there be any attempt to cover up such an incident? Could it be done and what would the reason be for such an action? All this and more will be revealed in Part 2 of this article.
In the first part of this article I addressed the issue of what the government would do if a UFO crashed (or landed) in the UK. Is there a plan? Who would be involved? Would the authorities try to cover it up? This two-part article sets out the issues and works through some possible scenarios. In the first part of the article I dealt with the issue of first response and established that while the police would have a key tactical role, at the strategic level the Cabinet Office and COBRA would take a co-ordinating role, with MoD quickly emerging as the lead department. The next questions that would need to be handled range from what to tell Ministers, through to how to handle the media. What would Parliament be told and would there be any attempt to cover up such an incident?
COMETA
Before addressing these issues, it was remiss of me in Part 1 of this article not to mention the COMETA Report. I had given examples of where officialdom had given some thought to the consequences of detecting an extraterrestrial radio signal or of a UFO crashing or landing and where some sort of contingency plan had been drafted. I mentioned the paper “UFO Hypothesis and Survival Questions” from the NSA’s website and also the “Post-Detection SETI Protocol” drafted by the International Academy of Astronautics. I also mentioned the second edition of “Fire Officer’s Guide to Disaster Control” by William M. Kramer and Charles W. Bahme. I should also have mentioned the COMETA Report. This 3-year study was undertaken by the French Institute for Higher Studies of Defence, a government-funded ‘think tank’ staffed by people whose backgrounds are generally government and military. The findings of their study were set out in a 90 page report entitled “UFOs and Defense: What Should We Prepare For?”. An English language version of this report is available on the internet, but when searching for it, remember that Defence is spelled the US way, i.e. Defense.
Informing Ministers
Ministers are, of course, politicians. Defence Ministers (i.e. the Secretary of State for Defence and the various ‘junior’ Ministers) and the MoD more generally aspire to a culture of “no surprises”. In other words, Ministers want to be told as quickly as possible of any major or controversial development. They certainly don’t want to find out something only when asked about it by a journalist or by an MP in Parliament. This is why briefing is so central to the MoD culture and indeed to the civil service as a whole. Civil Servants must ensure that Ministers and senior staff are briefed quickly and accurately on important issues. In our scenario of a UFO crash, an early action would be to brief Ministers. This would probably be done by telephone in the first instance (with calls to one of the Minister’s Private Office staff) and then followed up with a Ministerial submission. The Ministerial submission is a written brief in a set format, setting out the issue, making recommendations and discussing the presentational issues. A few examples of the template for a Ministerial submission can be found on the internet, but few actual submissions have been released, as they tend to be covered by Section 35 (Formulation of Government Policy) of the Freedom of Information Act. This exemption applies where information relates to the formulation or development of government policy. The thinking is that if the advice and debate behind policy-making is routinely made public, there is a risk that officials would be less willing to offer frank advice and challenge the status quo. Accordingly, this is an area where I can say little more. However, it’s worth noting that for any major incident (and this would certainly apply to our scenario of a UFO crash) the briefing process would have to include the Prime Minister and HM The Queen.
Decision Making
The next step would be to call a meeting. Meetings are central to the culture of the civil service and I attended hundreds in the course of my 21-year MoD career. Some meetings are minuted and some aren’t and as I’ve said before, the paper trail never tells the whole story. In the scenario of a UFO crash there is likely to be an initial MoD meeting chaired by the Secretary of State for Defence. Attendees would probably include the Chief of the Defence Staff, the Chief Scientific Adviser, the Chief Press Officer, the Head of Directorate of Air Staff, staff from the Defence Intelligence Staff and other senior officials. The UFO desk officer would probably not sit at the main table but (as subject matter expert) might be ‘in attendance, alongside other experts who might be called on for specialist advice. But generally speaking, such a meeting would be at director level and it would be expected that the respective heads of division would have been fully briefed by their subject matter experts. After this meeting there would inevitably be a meeting chaired by the Prime Minister, attended by Ministers and officials from other government departments. While the decisions that would need to be taken would vary according to the specifics of the crash, issues that would arise would include the following: is there a threat and if so, should alert levels be raised? Is there a biohazard (this was covered in Part 1 of this article) and if so, what measures should be taken? What – if anything – should parliament, the media and the public be told? What – if anything – should other countries be told?
Presentational Issues
We have all heard of the ‘dodgy dossier’ and ‘spin’, while the post 9/11 phrase “a good day to bury bad news” – even though it’s a slight misquotation – has also become firmly embedded in the public consciousness. What’s the truth behind these soundbites and how would this play out in our hypothetical scenario? There’s no doubt that presentational issues and news management are hugely important to the MoD and indeed to government as a whole. Type “Defence Press Office” into the search box on the MoD website for some basic details on the role and structure of this organisation. Additionally, the evidence from the Director of News on the Hutton Inquiry website gives an interesting insight into the working of the MoD’s press office. Assuming the event was to be made public, a news brief would be drawn up. Again, there’s a set format to this, which generally involves the key message and subsidiary Q & A material, posing the questions the MoD is most likely to be asked and giving the lines to take on them. Self-evidently, the key message would be something positive and in this case it might be something along the lines of “MoD scientists are currently examining the object and we will make a further statement when they have completed their investigations. There is no evidence of any danger to the public”. As with all material from government, while it can put a positive spin on matters, downplay negative issues and omit some material, it must be fundamentally truthful. I realise many people think governments lie all the time, but for a minister, lying is still a resignation issue and for a civil servant it is a serious disciplinary offence.
Secrecy
Assuming the media hadn’t already found out about the event and put out the story, the question would inevitably arise as to whether to try to keep the matter secret. Procedurally, this would be relatively straightforward. Essentially, the matter would be given a classification (probably Top Secret – UK Eyes Only) and any questions would be met with a “no comment”. As to why this move might be considered, the reason has little or nothing to do with the usual ideas about destabilising the economy, undermining religions and causing panic. It would reflect the fact that any nation that exclusively acquired extraterrestrial technology it was able to use (the most obvious example being a propulsion system that allows viable interstellar travel) would become the dominant force on the planet. If the technology was to be acquired exclusively by the British government and passed exclusively to British companies, politically, militarily and economically the UK would once more lead the world. This would be the temptation and with the stakes that high, it’s easy to see how such a course of action would be attractive. Of course, this is exactly what many people believe happened at Roswell and despite the controversy, the central idea (whether or not it actually happened) behind Philip Corso’s book “The Day After Roswell” is sound. This is the one reason for a cover-up that does make sense in terms of the way government and the military actually think.
Search and Rescue
A final observation needs to be made about the scenario of a UFO crash. While we can make few assumptions about extraterrestrials (which is why I instantly distrust anyone who authoritatively makes a statement that begins with a phrase along the lines of “aliens wouldn’t do that because”) it’s a fair assumption that the loss of the craft would be noticed and the location it had been in would be known. Therefore, just as happens when an aircraft crashes, it’s reasonable to suppose that a search and rescue mission would be attempted. So any UFO crash is very likely to be followed by a UFO landing. Though it’s often overlooked, this rather obvious point is one more indication that the alien autopsy video was a hoax. First contact is unlikely to go well if the first revelation from the military is that they have just dissected an extraterrestrial body. Ufologists and government officials think in fundamentally different ways. Nobody in the government and the military, when confronted with a UFO crash, would view the event as an isolated incident. It would be seen as an event with consequences and the mindset would be “Others may come to recover the craft. What should we do to prepare for this?”.
The Need for a Plan
All of this brings us back to where this article started, in Part 1, when I said that one of the most frequent questions I’m asked is what the MoD would do if confronted by a UFO crash and whether there’s a plan for this contingency. In the course of these two articles I think I’ve answered much of the first part of the question. But the second part of the question can be dealt with very simply: the UK has no official plan for such an eventuality. There are bits of other plans that could doubtless be adapted (e.g. the procedures for dealing with an aircraft accident and the plans for dealing with a suspected chemical or biological terror attack) but there’s no discrete plan for a UFO crash, a UFO landing or any other form of ‘first contact’, including the detection of a radio signal of extraterrestrial origin. This is partly because officials are naturally conservative and the possibility lies outside many people’s belief systems. “There’s no contingency plan should the Loch Ness Monster turn out to be real, so why should we have one for UFOs?”, the reasoning goes. However, given the cumulative evidence in relation to UFOs and given the issues at stake, such reasoning is arguably flawed. We are back to the issue of this being a “Low Probability/High Consequence” event. There’s an old adage “train hard, fight easy”. Having a plan, training people and then testing the people and the plan through realistic exercises is central to the ethos of the MoD and the military. The lack of a plan means that if the event does occur, the response will be less effective and less speedy than would otherwise be the case. Given the magnitude of some of the issues here (e.g. the potential biohazard) this is unfortunate, to say the least.
Conclusion
This 2-part article has been one of the most speculative that I’ve ever written, because of the huge number of variables and unknowns in our scenario. But in the absence of a plan, all we can do is speculate. I may be wide of the mark in some areas, but having served for 21 years in a wide range of MoD jobs, I understand the culture. So I may be wrong about what decisions would be taken, but I’m pretty sure I’m right about the way in which those decisions would be reached. I hope readers have enjoyed these two articles and that they’ve offered some food for thought. If nothing else, I hope it’s offered an intriguing glimpse into contingency planning and crisis management in government.
Nick Pope
www.nickpope.net
